The ongoing conflict involving Iran and regional powers has disrupted global markets in more ways than just energy prices. One of the most serious and far‑reaching effects is on the global fertilizer supply chain, which is now contributing to rising food prices and increased food insecurity in vulnerable countries.
Why Fertilizer Matters
Fertilizers are a cornerstone of modern agriculture. They supply essential nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium that dramatically increase crop yields. Without adequate fertilizer, farmers struggle to grow enough wheat, rice, corn, and other staple crops to meet demand.
Before the conflict, global fertilizer markets were already under strain due to higher energy costs and lingering supply chain issues from earlier global disruptions. The war in Iran has magnified these pressures, threatening supplies at a time when many regions are preparing for planting seasons.
Disruptions in Shipping and Production
A key reason the war has affected fertilizer supplies is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway through which a large portion of the world’s oil, gas, and industrial materials pass. When military tensions make shipping dangerous or force vessels to reroute, transportation costs go up and deliveries slow down. Fertilizer components that once moved predictably through this corridor are now delayed or diverted, reducing the available supply on world markets.
Fertilizer manufacturing also depends heavily on energy — particularly natural gas. The conflict has pushed up energy prices, increasing production costs for fertilizer manufacturers. These added expenses are being passed on to farmers, who are already coping with high input costs.
Rising Costs for Farmers and Consumers
As fertilizer becomes more costly and harder to obtain, farmers face tough decisions. Some are choosing to apply less fertilizer to their fields to save money, a practice that can lower crop yields. Lower yields mean less food produced, which pushes global food prices higher.
The effects are being felt around the world. In developed agricultural economies like the United States and parts of Europe, farmers are warning that tight fertilizer supplies could reduce planting or increase their production costs. In developing regions, where farmers rely even more on imported inputs and have limited budget flexibility, the situation is even more precarious.
For consumers, these disruptions translate into higher grocery bills. Staple foods such as bread, rice, and cooking oil are becoming more expensive as production costs climb and food supplies tighten. In many countries with limited domestic production, food inflation is already ranking among the top contributors to overall price increases.
Food Security Challenges in Vulnerable Regions
The consequences extend far beyond higher prices at the checkout counter. In regions heavily reliant on food imports, such as much of sub‑Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, rising food costs are worsening food insecurity. Households that already spend a large portion of their income on food are now struggling to afford basic staples.
International organizations warn that prolonged disruptions in fertilizer supply and elevated food prices could push additional millions of people into hunger. For countries with fragile economies or ongoing conflicts, the added pressure of food shortages could exacerbate social and political instability.
Looking Ahead
The impact of the Iran war on fertilizer and food markets highlights how interconnected global systems have become. A regional conflict can ripple across continents, affecting farmers, consumers, and entire economies far from the battlefield.
Addressing these challenges will require coordinated global efforts — such as reducing dependence on single supply routes, increasing fertilizer production in diverse locations, and supporting farmers with financial and technical assistance. Until then, the risk remains that fertilizer shortages will contribute to higher food insecurity and more volatile food prices, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.
